Freddie Sarhan is the CEO of Sapphire Technologies and has extensive experience in international business development and operations.
As trade tensions between the United States and China show no sign of abating in 2023, leaders around the world are questioning how this cooling of relations will impact issues that require global cooperation in the coming years. Following the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s recent dire report, questions on how U.S.-China trade tensions impact global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and cooperation on climate change mitigation efforts are particularly critical. A study published in the Environmental Impact Assessment Review in January 2023 found that the reallocation of products and services to the rest of the world caused by the cessation of U.S.-China trade will increase global emissions by 0.3%-1.8%.
As CEO of a climate technology company in the hardware space—a company that manufactures a unique turboexpander-generator that helps to decarbonize natural gas infrastructure—I can attest to the intrinsic connection between global politics, supply chains and climate change mitigation efforts.
A Global Manufacturing Scale Up
It’s not difficult to imagine how the dismantling of global supply chains might lead to an increase in global emissions, at least, in the short term. One need only turn a critical eye to the semiconductor industry, and the billions, even trillions of dollars invested by governments around the world to onshore chip manufacturing, to see where fast-changing trade dynamics may lead to negative environmental repercussions.
Indeed, a recent report by Greenpeace calls the tech supply chain “a fast-growing but hidden source of carbon emissions.” According to the report, “zero major semiconductor manufacturers, display manufacturers, or final assembly companies have issued climate commitments that are in line with limiting global heating within 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030.” Disrupting a global supply chain that has been built over decades and rebuilding it as multiple domestic or multinational alliances, post-haste, realistically, does not bode well for global emissions.
Disrupting Climate Technology Supply Chains
Beyond the semiconductor supply chain, closely related supply chains for critical components used in climate technology are shifting under the strain of U.S.-China tensions. Two key examples include the solar supply chain and electric vehicle (EV) supply chain. According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), China manufactures 80% of solar cells and assembled solar panels. The U.S. solar industry has been affected by forced labor-related restrictions that have impacted Chinese suppliers since last summer, as well as tariffs put into place in December 2022 in response to certain Chinese suppliers circumventing existing restrictions.
Further, China’s polysilicon capacity and production of silicon ingot and wafers packs a dual punch—impacting both microelectronics and solar industries. Additionally, as recently as July, China restricted gallium and germanium exports intended as a response to the U.S.’s sweeping semiconductor manufacturing equipment and chip export restrictions—including recent reports indicating the U.S. may restrict AI chip exports. While the intended impact was to hamper U.S. semiconductor manufacturing, germanium, for example, is also important for low-carbon technologies like solar cells. As trade wars intensify, one lever China can continue to pull is to yank rare earths from global supply chains—which will have intended and unintended repercussions for climate technology and climate change mitigation efforts.
Similarly, the EV supply chain is critically impacted by U.S.-China trade tensions. According to the World Economic Forum, China is already the third largest producer of lithium globally, and accounts for 60% of global battery-grade lithium-refining capacity. As automotive lithium-ion demand continues to increase (65% globally from 2021 to 2022 according to the IEA), China’s increasing hold on extraction and refining will prove either valuable leverage over the U.S. and its allies or a significant obstacle to overcome as the U.S. and its allies ramp up policies supporting EV adoption.
However, there may be hope. In June, Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Beijing for talks with top Chinese officials including President Xi Jinping. Secretary Blinken indicated (registration required) progress was made during the visit on issues like climate change mitigation. The visit could pave the way for future discussions between the two superpowers. In May, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry expressed optimism around the U.S. and China’s ability to reengage on critical climate discussions. In July, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China and engaged in what she described to BBC as “direct, substantive and productive” talks. However, in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping was notably absent from a G20 summit in India, and the Financial Times later reported China opposes U.S. presidency of G20 in 2026.
Implications For Business Leaders
If the U.S. and China could find a way to cooperate on mitigating climate change on ecosystems and human systems—including key economic sectors—perhaps climate diplomacy could open lines of communication that de-escalate the current geopolitical mood.
However, in the absence of said cooperation, business leaders should be aware of the impact of this rift on the climate technology supply chain and consider diversifying. Companies in the solar and EV spaces have already been working hard to diversify supply chains to de-risk reliance on China for components critical to their industries.
This could also impact global climate financing. In China’s absence at the recent G20 summit in New Delhi, G20 leaders renewed their commitment to 2009 levels of pledged support from developed countries to fund developing countries efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, these pledges do not include funding from China—an important global economy. According to the New York Times, China has pledged around $3.1 billion (paywall) to help developing countries mitigate the effects of climate change through what it calls “South-South” cooperation—of which it has delivered around 10%. But, India’s growing cooperation and collaboration with the U.S. as well as its emergence as a diplomatic leader of the “global south” could potentially threaten these financing commitments from China.
With the dire and global actions needed to combat climate in this century, we simply cannot afford a bifurcation when it comes to the U.S. and its allies and China and its allies on the topic of climate action.
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